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The Downfall of the Canadian Dollar – How it Might Affect the Real Estate Market
For the first time in five years, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has hit its lowest value after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland announced her resignation from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinet. As a key economic indicator, the CAD plays a big role in shaping the economy, including the housing market. With the dollar where it is now, it’s bound to have wide-reaching effects, making its impact on housing prices a hot topic for buyers, sellers, and investors.
 
In this blog we will go over some possible outcomes that may happen the Canadian Real Estate Market:
 

1. Boost to the Energy Sector and Local Economy

  • Export Competitiveness: Alberta’s economy is closely tied to oil and gas exports. A weaker Canadian dollar makes these exports more competitive internationally, potentially driving economic growth in the province.
  • Increased Housing Demand: If the energy sector experiences growth, more jobs may be created, attracting workers and boosting demand for housing in cities like Calgary and Edmonton

2. Attraction for Foreign Investors

  • Affordable Real Estate for Foreign Buyers: A weaker dollar makes Alberta’s already relatively affordable housing market even more attractive to foreign investors, particularly from the U.S., Europe, and Asia.
  • Luxury and Vacation Properties: High-end homes in Calgary, Edmonton, and resort areas like Canmore or Banff may see increased interest from international buyers.

3. Rising Costs for Developers

  • Higher Construction Costs: With many building materials and equipment are imported. A weaker dollar increases costs for developers, potentially leading to higher prices for new homes.
  • Possible Supply Constraints: Rising costs may delay new projects or reduce the number of homes being built, contributing to supply shortages.

4. Affordability Challenges for Local Buyers

  • Inflationary Pressure: A weaker dollar can drive up the cost of goods and services, potentially affecting household budgets and reducing affordability for local homebuyers.
  • Potential Mortgage Rate Increases: If inflation rises, the Bank of Canada may increase interest rates, leading to higher mortgage costs and making it harder for some buyers to enter the market.

5. Strengthened Rental Market

  • Increased Demand for Rentals: If affordability becomes an issue for buyers, more people may turn to renting, driving up demand in Alberta’s rental market.
  • Attractive Returns for Investors: Investors may find opportunities in rental properties.

The Possible Impact on Interest Rates:

The drop in the CAD could impact future interest rates, mainly through rising inflation as import costs go up. To tackle this, the BOC might look to raising rates, which would make mortgages, loans, and other borrowing more expensive. If other central banks, like the U.S. Federal Reserve, hike their rates in response to global trends, Canada might do the same to keep the currency stable and prevent capital from flowing out.

On the other hand, if the weaker dollar helps boost the energy sector and drives economic growth, the BOC might hold off on raising rates to support recovery. Job creation and business investments could ease inflation pressures, encouraging a more cautious approach. The bank’s decision will depend on finding the right balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth.

Conclusion:

The drop in the CAD could have mixed effects on Alberta’s housing market. On the upside, it might give the energy sector a boost, leading to economic growth, more jobs, and higher demand for housing. It could also attract foreign investors, especially in luxury properties. On the downside, rising construction costs and potential interest rate hikes could make homes more expensive to build and buy. If inflation increases due to the weaker dollar, the BOC might raise rates to keep prices in check. However, if economic growth in sectors like energy balances out inflation, rates could stay steady to support recovery. The market’s future will depend on how well inflation and growth are managed.

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Dec 15, 2024 – New Incentives for Homebuyers

As of December 15th, 2024, several significant incentives are available to assist homebuyers in Canada, particularly first-time buyers.

In this blog we will go over the all the key programs that have been rolled out:

The 2 Big Changes:

1. Increased Insured Mortgage Cap: The insured mortgage limit goes up from $1M to $1.5M. This means buyers can get a mortgage with less than 20% down for homes up to $1.5M, as long as they meet federal requirements. Before this, anyone buying a home over $1M needed at least a 20% down payment, which made it harder to afford pricier homes. By raising the cap, the government is making higher-priced homes more accessible for middle-income buyers. This change is expected to boost activity in the mid-to-upper price ranges of the market.

2. Extended Mortgage Amortization Period: The government is giving first-time homebuyers and buyers of new homes the option to stretch their mortgage payments over 30 years. This will lower their monthly payments, making homeownership more affordable. While it means paying more interest in the long run, the immediate advantage is more manageable payments each month, helping buyers handle higher housing costs and stay on top of their finances.

Other Need to Know Incentives:

1. Tax-Free First Home Savings Account (FHSA): The FHSA allows Canadians to contribute up to $8,000 per year, with a lifetime limit of $40,000, towards their first down payment. Contributions are tax-free, and withdrawals used for purchasing a first home are also tax-free.

2. Enhanced Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP): The HBP enables first-time homebuyers to withdraw up to $60,000 from their Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP) to fund a down payment, an increase from the previous limit of $35,000. This can be combined with FHSA savings for a larger down payment.

3. First-Time Home Buyer Incentive (FTHBI): The FTHBI offers eligible first-time homebuyers a shared equity mortgage with the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This program provides 5% of the home’s purchase price for resale homes and 10% for newly constructed homes, assisting with down payments.

Conclusion:

By lowering upfront costs and monthly payments, these programs are intended to make homeownership more accessible. This will lead to much more active real estate market for 2025, with climbing prices as result of increased affordability and easier access for buyers. It will also be easier to purchase a home with the insured mortgage cap raised to $1.5M and 30-year mortgages being available to first-time buyers. It’s anticipated that demand for both new and resale homes is expected to increase as result of initiatives like the FHSA, the updated HBP, and incentives for new construction. Altogether, these changes should boost buying activity, encourage new construction, and push prices higher, particularly for entry-level and mid-range homes. If you’re looking to get into the market, the prices we see today will be the lowest you’ll see them; don’t let the opportunity for home ownership pass you by in this “slower” season.

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The Final Announcement of 2024

On December 11, the BOC will make its final rate announcement for 2024, and most economists are expecting another cut. The question we are all wondering is: by how much?

Why We can Expect Another Cut:

With much anticipation and only a few days away, there are many economists in recent news stating that with the poor unemployment rate, state of inflation, and economy, alongside recent trending cuts, we are anticipating another 25 basis point drop, bringing it down from its current rate of 3.75% to 3.50%.

Supporting the prediction of a 25 basis point cut is the latest Statistics Canada inflation report, which showed inflation reaccelerated to 2.0% in October, up from 1.6% in September. This reading was slightly higher than most market participants expected, implying that the BoC’s goal of stabilizing inflation will not be smooth one.

Canada’s unemployment rate rose more than expected to 6.8 per cent in November, a near-eight-year high excluding the pandemic years, even as the economy added a net 50,500 jobs, data showed on Friday, boosting chances of a rate cut next week.

The rise in unemployment shows that the labor force is growing, with more Canadians looking for work than there are jobs available. While it’s good that jobs are being created, it’s just not happening fast enough to keep up with population growth and the demands of the job market.

The numbers highlight worries about a slowing economy and could play a role in the BOC’s upcoming decision on interest rates. A higher unemployment rate often signals that the economy isn’t running at full strength, which might push the central bank to lower rates to give it a boost. With inflation staying near the Bank’s target, the unexpected rise in unemployment strengthens the case for a rate cut. Lower rates could encourage more consumer spending and business investment, giving the economy a much-needed lift.

As much as we can anticipate a guaranteed 25 basis point drop, there are others such as the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) who believe that with Canada’s sluggish economy, highlighted by the latest GDP figures, could push the BOC to make a bold move with a 50 basis point rate cut before the year ends. The GDP data revealed slower-than-expected growth, pointing to ongoing issues like weaker consumer spending, low business investment, and falling exports.

RBC thinks this economic slowdown, along with rising unemployment and inflation staying close to the Bank’s target, gives the central bank room for a larger rate cut to kickstart growth. A 50 basis point cut would be a significant step, making borrowing cheaper, boosting spending, and addressing the clear gaps in the economy. It would also show the Bank’s focus on steering the economy back on track as we head into 2025.

Conclusion:

If the BOC cuts the interest rate to 3.50% for the new year, we will see a massive increase of buyer interest as borrowing gets cheaper, which in turn will drive up demand where there’s already a limited supply. With more competition, prices will be expected to rise from the price corrections we have seen in the last quarter of 2024 in all areas of the market. With the lower rates, not only home buyers but also more investors can be attracted, adding even more activity to the market. Overall, the rate cut will make next year’s market busier, pushing prices higher, and tighten housing availability even further.

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Winterizing your Home – Need to Know

Why bother winterizing your home? As one of the biggest purchases throughout your life, you want to protect your investment, and by getting your home ready for the cold, these steps can save you money on energy, prevent costly damage, and keep your home warm and safe all winter long.

In this blog, we’ll go over some quick tips on how to get started!

1. Seal Drafts and Insulate

  • Doors and Windows:
    • Install weather stripping around doors.
    • Use caulk to seal gaps and cracks around windows.
    • Consider installing storm doors and windows for added insulation.
  • Insulate Gaps:
    • Add insulation to walls, attics, and basements.
    • Use foam sealant for gaps around pipes and wiring.

2. Protect Pipes

  • Insulate Pipes:
    • Wrap exposed pipes with foam insulation to prevent freezing.
  • Outdoor Faucets:
    • Drain garden hoses and shut off water to outdoor spigots.
    • Cover faucets with insulated covers.

3. Maintain Your Heating System

  • Furnace Tune-Up:
    • Have your furnace or boiler inspected by a professional.
    • Replace air filters to improve efficiency.
  • Thermostat Upgrade:
    • Consider an upgrade for better temperature control.

4. Check Roof and Gutters

  • Inspect Roof:
    • Look for damaged or missing shingles and repair them.
  • Clean Gutters:
    • Clear leaves and debris to prevent ice dams.
    • Ensure downspouts direct water away from the foundation.

5. Improve Ventilation

  • Prevent Condensation:
    • Use exhaust fans in kitchens and bathrooms.
    • Ensure attic vents are clear to prevent moisture buildup and ice dams.

6. Add Insulation and Draft Stoppers

  • Use draft stoppers for doors.
  • Add thermal curtains to windows.
  • Lay rugs on floors to reduce heat loss.

7. Check Carbon Monoxide and Smoke Detectors

  • Replace batteries and test all detectors.
  • Install detectors near sleeping areas and furnaces.

Conclusion:

Getting your home ready for winter is super important to shield it from the challenges of cold weather. It also helps you save energy, cutting down on heating bills and avoiding potential expensive issues like frozen pipes or roof leaks. The best part is it keeps your home cozy and safe all season long. Prepping ahead of time not only protects your home in the long run, as we know, the winters can be quite long.

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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.