If you’re wondering why so many Ontarians are heading to Alberta, especially with no signs of it slowing down this year, the numbers tell the story. In the third quarter of 2024, nearly 23,000 people left Ontario for other parts of Canada, while just under 19,000 moved to Ontario from other provinces. That left Ontario with a net loss of over 4,200 people. But why are so many choosing Alberta?
In this blog we will go over the difference between the markets and why Calgary, in particular, is thriving.
Calgary: Canada’s Next Real Estate Hotspot?
Calgary has been on the up and up, mainly due to the significant growth in the past years, while the job market has stayed relatively strong compared to the rest of Canada, the biggest draw for outsiders is affordability. While home prices in Ontario continue to climb, Calgary offers a much more affordable lifestyle, making it an attractive option for those looking to escape the high costs of living and find better opportunities, and here are a few reasons why:
- Energy Sector Resurgence: Calgary leads Canada’s energy shift, attracting investment and skilled workers seeking affordability and stability as Ontario’s costs rise.
- Tech Industry Boom: Calgary is growing as a tech hub, attracting investment and top talent while diversifying Alberta’s economy for long-term stability.
- Affordability Advantage: Calgary’s housing is far more affordable than Toronto’s, costing nearly half as much. This draws buyers from Ontario and B.C., where homeownership is out of reach.
- Explosive Population Growth: Calgary’s population is surging as young professionals and families move west for affordability, jobs, and a better quality of life.
In short, Calgary’s growing energy and tech sectors, its affordability, and rapid population growth are all key factors driving the upward trend in its real estate market. Recent stats also show that Calgary’s rental market is still very competitive, with vacancy rates staying under 2%, showing there’s lots of demand due to the steady flow of people moving from other provinces, which is pushing that demand up, which is making rent prices rise and creating more competition for available places.
Toronto: The Downfall?
In January 2025, the average home price in the GTA dipped to $1,040,994—down 2.5% from December. If you’re wondering what happened, here’s the few reasons on why the Toronto market has been on the downturn as of late.
- Home Prices Dropping: Prices for both condos and single-family homes have continued to decline, with some areas seeing double-digit percentage drops compared to last year.
- Surge in Listings: Active listings have increased significantly, leading to more inventory and giving buyers more negotiating power.
- Rising Vacancy Rates: The rental market is experiencing higher vacancy rates, with landlords offering incentives to attract tenants.
- Interest Rate Impact: High borrowing costs due to elevated interest rates are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines, leading to slower sales.
- Government Policy Changes: New measures, including reduced immigration targets and potential housing regulations, are affecting investor confidence.
The Toronto Real Estate market is struggling due to high interest rates, more homes available, and affordability issues, leading to lower demand and falling prices. Meanwhile, interprovincial migration from Ontario to Alberta is expected to continue, driven by lower living costs, a strong economy, and a better quality of life. Alberta’s affordable housing, thriving energy and tech sectors, and tax-friendly environment make it an appealing choice for Ontarians, especially with the rise of remote work.
Conclusion:
Calgary’s Real Estate market is continuing to thrive, with prices expected to keep rising due to low inventory and high demand. Now’s the time to invest, before prices climb even higher. In fact, prices for detached homes and townhouses have nearly doubled in the last five years and show no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, Toronto’s market is facing challenges, with high interest rates, an oversupply of homes, and affordability issues causing prices to drop. As a result, more Ontarians are heading to Alberta, drawn by its lower cost of living, strong economy, and better quality of life. With affordable housing, a growing energy and tech sector, and a tax-friendly environment, Alberta is becoming the go-to place for those looking to make a move before it’s too late.
