“Do you think the rates are coming down?” or “Should I wait for rates to come down?”
Probably some of the most common questions buyers are asking right now, and honestly, it’s a fair question.
With interest rates rising and falling over the last few years, and still so much uncertainty around where they're headed, many buyers are wondering if it makes sense to wait a little longer before making a move.
The problem is, nobody has a crystal ball.
So, instead of trying to predict exactly what the Bank of Canada is going to do, let’s look at what the data is telling us right now and what some of Canada’s biggest banks are expecting for 2027.
Where Are Rates Today?
As of September 2, 2026, the Bank of Canada has kept its policy rate at 2.25%, marking the seventh consecutive decision without a change.
The Bank has indicated that the Canadian economy is showing signs of recovery, but there is still plenty of uncertainty.
One of the bigger concerns right now is inflation.
Inflation is sitting close to 3%, although much of that increase has been tied to gasoline prices. Core inflation, which strips out some of the more volatile components, is much closer to 2%.
There are also ongoing concerns around tariffs and trade tensions between Canada and the United States.
And then there is oil.
Higher energy prices can eventually work their way through the economy and put upward pressure on inflation. If that happens, the Bank of Canada could have less room to cut rates, and potentially even be forced to consider raising them.
The important takeaway?
A rate cut isn't off the table, but neither is a rate increase.
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled announcement is October 28, 2026, and we'll have to see what the economic data looks like between now and then.
So What Do the Big Banks Expect for 2027?
This is where things get interesting.
The Bank of Canada doesn't publish a specific forecast saying, “Here is exactly where we expect the overnight rate to be in December 2027.”
So, we can look at what Canada's major banks are forecasting instead.
And they don't all agree.
| Bank | Expected 2027 Direction | Forecast |
|---|
| RBC | Increase | 3.25% |
| Scotiabank | Increase | 3.00% |
| National Bank | Increase | 2.75% |
| CIBC | Increase | 2.75% |
| TD | No change | 2.25% |
| BMO | No change | 2.25% |
Four of the six major banks are currently forecasting that rates will gradually move higher in 2027.
TD and BMO are the outliers, expecting the policy rate to remain around 2.25%.
And I think that's actually one of the most important things to take from this.
Even the experts don't agree.
Some expect rates to stay where they are. Others expect gradual increases. What they aren't forecasting is a major return to the ultra-low rates we saw several years ago.
So if you're waiting for rates to drop significantly before buying, there is no guarantee that day is coming.
What Does This Mean for Buyers?
This is where we need to look beyond just the interest rate.
Calgary's housing market isn't one single market. Different property types are behaving very differently.
As of August 2026, Calgary's benchmark price was around $569,800, down about 1.1% from the previous year.
But look at the difference between property types:
That's a pretty significant difference.
The condo market is giving buyers more selection and more negotiating power, while detached homes continue to have a much tighter supply situation.
So, when you're deciding whether to buy now or wait, I wouldn't look at interest rates in isolation.
You also need to consider what you're buying and what prices are doing in that particular segment.
Waiting for a Lower Rate Isn't Always Cheaper
Let's say you're waiting because you think rates will be lower six or twelve months from now.
That's certainly possible.
But what happens if rates stay the same while home prices increase?
Or what if rates come down slightly, but increased buyer demand pushes prices higher?
You could end up with a lower interest rate but a more expensive house.
This is why I always think it's more helpful to look at the overall cost of the home, rather than simply chasing the lowest possible interest rate.
For example, if you're looking at a condo right now, the additional inventory could give you some negotiating power on the purchase price.
That may be more valuable than waiting for a small rate reduction.
On the other hand, if you're looking at a detached home in an area with very limited inventory, waiting could mean you're competing against more buyers later.
There isn't one answer that applies to everyone.
What Should Buyers Do Right Now?
Get Pre-Approved: Even if you're not ready to buy tomorrow, getting pre-approved can give you a much better understanding of what your monthly payment actually looks like.
Depending on the lender, you may also be able to lock in a rate for a period of time.
That gives you some protection if rates move higher while you're shopping.
Don't Base Your Entire Decision on Rates: I get it. A lower mortgage rate sounds great.
Look at the Market You're Actually Buying In: Don't just ask, “What's happening in Calgary?”
Ask “What's happening with the type of property and neighbourhood I'm interested in?”
A condo buyer and a detached-home buyer could have two very different experiences right now.
If you're buying a condo, there may be opportunities to negotiate with more inventory available.
If you're buying a detached home, the supply situation is tighter, which can create a very different dynamic.
Keep an Eye on the Bank of Canada: The next Bank of Canada decision is October 28, 2026.
There will be several more decisions throughout 2027, and economic conditions can change quickly.
Rather than trying to perfectly time the market, I think it's more useful to keep an eye on the bigger picture and adjust your strategy as conditions change.
The Bottom Line
So, where are mortgage rates headed in 2027? The honest answer is: we don't know.
The Bank of Canada isn't promising further cuts, and Canada's major banks are split between rates staying flat and gradually moving higher.
What we can say is that a significant drop in rates isn't currently the consensus forecast.
If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for mortgage rates to fall, it may be worth looking at the decision differently.
Instead of asking:
“When will rates come down?”
Ask:
“Does the home, price and monthly payment make sense for me today?”
Because if you find the right home at the right price, a slightly higher interest rate can potentially be refinanced later.
You can't refinance the price you overpaid for a home.
As always, the right decision depends on your situation, finances and long-term plans. If you're thinking about buying in Calgary and want to understand what today's market actually looks like for your budget and the type of home you're considering, I'd be happy to help you run through the numbers.