The latest forecast from the Calgary Real Estate Board, prepared by Chief Economist Ann-Marie Lurie, paints a clear picture of where the market is heading. After several years of intense seller conditions, Calgary is settling into a more balanced phase as supply rises and demand returns to more typical levels.
A Market Reset Is Underway
Over the past few years, strong housing starts are now translating into more available homes across resale, new construction, and rentals. At the same time, migration is slowing and economic conditions are stabilizing, which is easing demand pressures.
This shift already began in 2025 as the market moved away from extreme seller conditions. More inventory helped take pressure off prices, especially in apartments and row homes, while detached and semi detached homes held relatively steady.
Supply Growth Will Be the Big Story
Roughly 26,000 homes currently under construction are expected to be completed over the next few years, with much of that supply coming from apartment style units. While construction starts are expected to slow, it will take time for the market to absorb this inventory, particularly with migration easing.
This continued supply growth is expected to keep some downward pressure on apartment and row home prices, while detached and semi detached homes remain more balanced.
Demand Is Normalizing, Not Falling Off
Employment remains stable and interest rates are expected to hold relatively steady, which should prevent any major swings in demand. Compared to markets like Toronto and Vancouver, Calgary continues to show steady fundamentals and relatively healthy activity levels.
Population growth is slowing but still positive, meaning demand is cooling rather than reversing.
Condos and Rentals Face the Most Pressure
With a large number of new apartment units completing and rental supply increasing, condos are expected to remain the softest segment. Rising vacancy rates and more choice for renters are slowing rent growth and reducing urgency for some buyers.
Detached Homes Remain the Most Stable
Limited new supply and continued affordability compared to other major Canadian cities are helping support detached home prices. While price growth is expected to be minimal, this segment continues to show the most stability overall.
Interest Rates Likely Stay Steady
The forecast does not anticipate significant rate cuts in 2026, meaning the market will continue adjusting through supply and demand rather than lower borrowing costs.
Risks That Could Shift the Outlook
There are several factors that could influence the market over the next few years. The memorandum of understanding between federal and provincial governments could support investment if regulatory barriers in the energy sector ease. On the other hand, uncertainty around the renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement and potential weakness in energy prices could slow economic momentum.
The Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up to be a year of normalization. More inventory is giving buyers more choice and negotiating power, while sellers need to be realistic with pricing and preparation.
Condos are likely to feel the most pressure, detached homes should remain relatively steady, and the overall market is expected to stay balanced.
Long term fundamentals in Calgary remain strong, and as always, real estate continues to move through its natural cycles.
Click here to read the full CREB® 2026 Forecast Calgary and Region Yearly Outlook Report.
